Goldman Sachs reiterated its view that easing sanctions imposed on Russia, in the event of a peace agreement with Ukraine, would not lead to a significant increase in Russian oil supplies to the global market.
Goldman Sachs explained that the main reason for restricting Russian oil production is Russia's commitment to the OPEC+ agreement to cut production, rather than the sanctions imposed on it. It added that the current sanctions primarily affect the direction of Russian oil exports, rather than their total volume.
This statement comes at a time when speculation is growing about the potential easing of sanctions on Russia if a peace agreement is reached, which could lead to an increase in oil supply in the global market. However, Goldman Sachs believes that the impact of easing sanctions will be limited, as Russia is committed to the OPEC+ agreement that restricts its oil production.
Earlier this week, Bank of America stated that if the Ukraine talks result in an agreement and a potential easing of sanctions on crude oil and petroleum products exports from Moscow, oil prices could drop by as much as $10 per barrel for Brent crude.
Bank of America analysts said in a note: "If sanctions easing allows it, we believe that Brent crude prices could fall between $5 and $10 per barrel if Russian barrels no longer have to make a long journey to India or China, and more supplies suddenly become available."
