Oil prices are likely to trend lower in 2026 as strong supply growth pushes the market deeper into surplus, according to Goldman Sachs. The bank expects the same pattern seen in 2025 to persist, with ample production outweighing geopolitical risks and keeping sustained price upside in check.
Get premium access to oil market forecasts with InvestingPro — save 55% today Brent crude fell 14% year over year in 2025 despite repeated spikes driven by geopolitical tensions, a trend Goldman strategists say will repeat.
The team, led by Daan Struyven, forecasts Brent and WTI to average $56 and $52 per barrel in 2026, down from current forward curves of $62 and $58, as the market faces an ongoing supply wave that leaves a 2.3 million barrels per day surplus.
Rising global oil inventories suggest that “rebalancing the market likely requires lower oil prices in 2026,” absent major supply disruptions or fresh OPEC production cuts, strategists said.
Goldman’s base case assumes no OPEC cuts next year, arguing that the 2025 supply increases were strategic and that current price weakness reflects temporary supply strength rather than demand erosion.
The Wall Street firm expects prices to weaken through the year, with Brent and WTI bottoming at $54 and $50 in the fourth quarter of 2026 as inventory builds accelerate in OECD commercial storage hubs. The bank notes that inventory accumulation on land is becoming more influential for prices as oil stored on water is already elevated and begins to slow.
Supply strength remains the key driver of the outlook. Strategists point to continued production beats in the U.S. and Russia, alongside “slightly higher Venezuela production,” as factors weighing on long-dated prices and reinforcing downward pressure across the forward curve.
Accordingly, Goldman has reduced its three-year forward Brent fair value assumption by $5 to $64 and cut its 2027 average price forecasts by the same amount, now seeing Brent and WTI averaging $58 and $54, respectively, as higher supply delays market rebalancing.
While geopolitical risks remain significant, strategists see them as creating volatility rather than a sustained rally. “While threats to sanctioned supply could create price spikes,” policymakers’ preference for abundant energy supply and relatively low oil prices will cap upside, they said, particularly ahead of U.S. midterm elections.
Overall risks to the outlook are seen as two-sided but modestly skewed to the downside.
Beyond 2026, Goldman expects prices to begin recovering from 2027 as non-OPEC supply growth slows and demand remains solid.
Even so, it has trimmed its long-term outlook, cutting Brent and WTI estimates for 2030–2035 to $75 and $71 per barrel, while still arguing a longer-run price recovery is needed to support investment after years of low long-cycle spending.
