Oil prices fall with US-Russia talks, inflation in focus

Oil prices fell in Asian trade on Monday, extending steep declines from the prior week as traders looked to upcoming talks between the U.S. and Russia heralding a cooldown in the Ukraine conflict.

Soft inflation data from top oil importer China also weighed, amid middling signs of economic improvement in July. The print, coupled with a host of weak economic readings in recent weeks, kept oil markets largely negative on future demand. 

Brent oil futures for October fell 0.8% to $66.08 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 0.8% to $62.47 a barrel by 21:35 ET (01:35 GMT). 

Both contracts slid over 4% last week. 

US-Russia talks in focus as Washington targets oil buyers  The U.S. and Russia agreed to hold a summit on August 15, with President Donald Trump set to meet Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin to discuss an end to the war in Ukraine. 

The summit comes as Washington ramped up its pressure on Russia’s oil exports, specifically by targeting top buyers China and India. 

Trump imposed as much as 50% tariffs against India to stop it from buying Russian oil, and also threatened a similar move against China. 

Trump’s tariff threats had offered limited support to oil prices last week, given that his broader, reciprocal tariffs on major trading partners also took effect. Oil markets feared potential headwinds to demand from U.S. tariffs.    China inflation underwhelms, US CPI awaited  Chinese consumer price index inflation read flat for July, while producer price index inflation shrank past expectations, highlighting a sustained deflationary trend in the world’s biggest oil importer.

The print follows a series of middling economic readings from the country, signaling limited support from Beijing’s stimulus measures and an earlier deescalation in a trade war with Washington. 

Extreme weather conditions in July also appeared to have dented Chinese economic activity. 

Focus this week is also on U.S. CPI data for July. The print is due on Tuesday, with any signs of cooling inflation likely to drive up bets on a September interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

The CPI print is expected to offer more cues on the world’s biggest fuel consumer, as it faces potential price increases from Trump’s tariffs. 

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