The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates on hold at next week’s meeting, sticking to its familiar script of data dependence. But Bank of America economists suggest the central bank may be holding back fresh signals until the Jackson Hole symposium late next month, where more clarity on the Fed’s policy path could emerge.
Maintaining Optionality Ahead of Jackson Hole “We expect the Fed to maintain maximal optionality at its July meeting. Powell would prefer to see the July data before potentially guiding the markets for September at Jackson Hole,” Bank of America economists said in a recent note.
While markets anticipate no change in policy next week, investors will be closely parsing the Fed’s language for hints on its tolerance for inflation risks, especially amid signs of tariff pass-through pushing prices higher. The economists caution that any hawkish emphasis on lingering inflation pressures could unsettle markets, while dovish tones would support expectations for rate cuts later this year.
Labor Market Outlook to Continue to Lead Policy Debate Messaging on the labor market will likely continue to take center stage. The July jobs report is expected to show slower but still positive payroll gains and a slight uptick in the unemployment rate, underscoring the ongoing debate over whether labor slack is increasing.
Bank of America expects the July nonfarm payroll report to show modest growth of 60,000 jobs and a slight uptick in the unemployment rate to 4.2%.
3rd party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Investing.com. See disclosure here or remove ads. Bank of America’s now expects a further cooling of jobs growth, forecasting shocks to supply, driven by Trump’s crack down in immigration, rather than weaker demand to have the biggest impact.
"We have lowered our payroll forecasts to an average of about 50k in 2H25 and 70k in 2026 from 70k and 75k, respectively," the economists said. "But we expect most of the slowdown to be due to supply rather than demand."
Tariff Impact on Inflation in Focus Inflation data out this week, meanwhile, is also poised to shape the Fed’s next moves. While core inflation may have peaked earlier than feared, recent increases in goods inflation—driven in part by tariff-related price pressures—are threatening a more protracted elevated inflation environment. This dynamic complicates the Fed’s challenge of engineering a soft landing without reigniting price pressures.
“On tariffs, Powell will probably be asked about the pickup in goods inflation (ex-autos) in June. A hawkish stance would emphasize risks of additional pass-through in coming months, while a dovish view might focus on signs of stability in housing inflation and long-term inflation expectations, the economists suggested.
“In the presser, markets will be focused on whether Powell underscores the Fed’s desire to cut this year, or remains non-committal. On inflation, it would be hawkish if Powell emphasizes the risks of additional tariff pass-through, and dovish if he focuses on the stability of services inflation and expectations.”
