The minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting are expected to reflect the policymakers' adherence to a "wait-and-see" approach, along with a decreased likelihood of changing the main interest rate in the near term. This record serves as an accurate indicator of the economic uncertainty imposed by global trade tensions and the tariff decisions made by President Donald Trump.
The minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve are scheduled to be published today, Wednesday, at 2 PM Eastern Time, after the markets experienced significant changes amid developments in global trade. While the announcement of new tariffs at the beginning of April ignited fears of an economic recession and sharply increased bond yields, Trump's later adjustments to postpone some tariffs eased these expectations and somewhat boosted market confidence.
Despite this retreat, the U.S. Federal Reserve still faces a profound level of uncertainty, as markets lack clear signals regarding upcoming trade policies. The minutes may reveal that officials discussed the implications of fluctuating import tariffs without reaching a solid ground to assess their economic impact.
Nonetheless, future expectations are split between two contradictory scenarios: the first expects inflation to rise due to the entrenchment of tariffs, while the second anticipates an increase in unemployment due to uncertainty and rising costs, potentially resulting in a concerning economic mix.
Currently, the U.S. Federal Reserve does not see justification for changing the main interest rate from 4.25% to 4.50%, which has remained unchanged since last December. Experts at the central bank continue to prepare studies to assess the impact of tariffs, although their results remain contingent on future political and economic developments.
Current market estimates indicate that the U.S. Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in the meetings of June and July, with expectations of a quarter-point cut in September and December, provided that economic conditions do not change unexpectedly. The markets agree that the fate of the interest rate will remain clearly linked to the global trade scene, which still fluctuates between escalation and de-escalation.
